Economy

Coronavirus, what are the big economies doing

The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic is growing like a snowball.

Right now, Europe has become the main scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the United States is increasing the number of people infected every day, which has made it a national emergency. Governments around the world are doing their best to contain the economic impact that the spread of the coronavirus is having on families, workers and businesses. Currently, unfortunately, there is not enough information about the disease.

Although health experts are still determining the impacts of the virus and other characteristics, such as the incubation period, it is a fact for everyone that the economic impact will depend largely on how the world's population reacts to the virus. The reaction of all people in the world could cause the disease to be contained or spread more rapidly and widely, resulting in a very high increase in unnecessary costs at this sensitive time for the world economy.

Every day we hear of countries closing their borders and declaring quarantine to prevent the spread of the virus. This leads to economic activity collapsing further every day, and companies in hard-hit sectors such as airlines, hotels and restaurants continue to warn that they are in imminent danger of bankruptcy; therefore, many workers are losing their jobs and stock markets worldwide continue to fall.

Curfew states have been decreed by governments, situations not seen since World War II, and although the center of the hurricane is in Europe, already countries like the United States and many Latin American countries have declared a state of emergency to try to contain the number of cases that appear every day.

What is really dangerous is that a severe reaction by the authorities of the countries or the population itself, where they decide on extreme measures in a given area, could create chaos and cause significant economic costs, especially for industries that specialize in production, which they cannot afford to do virtually (such as manufacturing). Therefore, if many countries opt for this type of measure, the impact on the world economy could be catastrophic.

For both leaders and scientific experts worldwide, it is not known how long the pandemic can spread and it is difficult to estimate how much money they will have to inject into the economies and what emergency measures they can put in place to mitigate the devastating effects on people's incomes.

And you wonder, what will happen to the unemployed, the informal workers, the self-employed, small and medium enterprises, or people working in the agricultural sector?

How will they cope with their needs such as rent, utilities like water, gas, electricity and the supermarket?

And what about the giant multinationals that oversee moving international production chains and that today took the decision to paralyze their factories?

Financial support
The leaders of the European continent have repeatedly said that they are prepared to invest "everything necessary" to sustain and save the economies from a major disaster.

Loan projects are a good start, but governments must ensure that all businesses get access to financial assistance; however, a big question arises as to how much fiscal budgets can withstand if the pandemic continues and spreads for months. It remains an enigma.

Here we show some of the measures that are in the process of being approved by parliaments or are already being implemented due to the emergency in the United States, the affected countries in Europe and the largest economies in Latin America:

The United States

• The Federal Reserve, lowering interest rates to almost 0, injected $700 billion in liquidity into the market with the purchase of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities
• It will resume its corporate debt purchase program, first implemented during the Great Recession of 2008.
• The president invoked the 1950 law allowing corporate intervention to fight the coronavirus and could force industry to produce essential medical supplies.
• He suspended foreclosures and evictions until the end of April.
• There is a plan proposed by the White House where more than US$1 trillion could be spent on sending direct cheques for US$1,000 to the most vulnerable citizens to boost consumption. This is being negotiated in Congress.

Europe

• The Italian government announced the suspension of mortgage payments, financial aid to affected companies, provision of money for affected self-employed workers, financial subsidies for the unemployed, temporary suspension of tax obligations for companies and citizens, a ban on dismissals for two months, extension of parental leave and provision of a bonus for parents who must work to pay for the care of their children.
• Spain announces the mobilization of almost 20% of the GDP to fight the economic effects of the virus, with public and private contributions. The State will develop a line of credit available to the most affected companies.
• It joins the Italian government and also the Spanish government established a moratorium on the payment of mortgages, financial aid for independent workers and companies with large losses, exoneration from the payment of Social Security, suspension of cuts for non-payment of water and internet service to those who cannot pay and direct aid to families with less financial resources.

• The United Kingdom announced that it will make available US$400 billion in loans to businesses affected by the pandemic. Like its neighbors, it will also suspend mortgage payments for three months for those in financial difficulty and make available billions in direct aid and grants to small businesses, as well as tax breaks for one year, to those most affected.
• Meanwhile in France, there is an emergency plan that includes providing resources to workers and businesses, as well as implementing tax guarantees for loans and specific measures to help businesses that are under threat.
• The Government will provide benefits to self-employed workers and will give a two-month salary subsidy to workers who find their contracts suspended due to the coronavirus. This plan also provides for a "solidarity fund" for micro and small businesses that are having problems due to a drop in income. The decision was also taken to postpone the tax burden and employer's contributions for the companies, with the possibility of their being cancelled in cases that merit it.
• Germany is surprised to announce exceptional measures, which include proposals such as a plan that considers the granting of unlimited credit for companies, taking into account guarantees from public banks for entrepreneurs, all as a containment measure so that their companies do not go bankrupt. In addition, it has been implemented, with public financing, the reduction of the working hours of its employees, due to the fall of its production and income.

Latin America

• To this day, Mexico has completely ruled out closing airports to stop the expansion of COVID-19, arguing that they are preventing an economy closure that will hurt the most vulnerable, which are the poor. They are taking measures such as adjusting the government budget and expanding social spending programs.
• It is evident that Mexico is facing a very compromising situation, which could directly affect the United States, which is its main commercial partner, an imminent fall of the state oil company Pemex and the fall of the tourism sector.
• On the other hand, Argentina has announced an increase in aid with subsidies for poverty, pensioners and the unemployed. It also announces subsidies for pregnant women in vulnerable situations. For this purpose, it made available $1.5 billion for public works, housing and tourism projects. All this to address the economic impact of the pandemic.
• In Brazil, the Government has requested Congress to declare a "state of public calamity", which allows for a more efficient management of the budget to face the pandemic. Also, the Ministry of Economy announces a shock plan with an injection of $29 billion to help the economy in this crisis. Approximately half of this money will go to the country's most vulnerable population, through various social aids.
• Also, the government suspended for three months some of the taxes applied to companies.

Millions of jobs will be lost

According to statements by International Labour Organization (ILO) officials, the pandemic could destroy up to 24.7 million jobs worldwide, far exceeding the 2008 financial crisis in which 22 million jobs were eliminated.

Clearly, this is just beginning, but consumer and market confidence will increase with the cooperation that now exists among the world's governments. It is not only about economic cooperation, but most importantly, public health support for collaboration with countries that today see their health systems collapse due to the pandemic. It is also important to collaborate in solidarity for the development of vaccines and international tests for the control of the pandemic.

This is not the time to fall into the game of finding fault or taking selfish approaches, because this only leads to a greater risk of disintegration of the world economy that could become a problem beyond the pandemic that hits us today.

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